Euro Growth Indicator

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Euro Growth Indicator March 2019

EUROGROWTH Indicator shows only modest growth for the next two quarters

The March EUROGROWTH Indicator suggests that euro area GDP growth will rise by close to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, following 0.2 per cent according to Eurostat in the fourth quarter, and decelerate again in the second quarter to close to stagnation . The indicator’s estimate implies that the year-on-year growth rate would decline to 1.0 per cent and 0.7 per cent in the first and second quarters of 2019, respectively.

 

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Euro Growth Indicator February 2019

Euro area GDP growth to remain moderate in the first quarter of 2019

Euro area GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the preliminary flash estimate released by EUROSTAT, slightly less than the 0.3 per cent growth anticipated by the EUROGROWTH indicator calculated by EUROFRAME. According to the EUROGROWTH indicator, euro area GDP growth would slightly decelerate from 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 0.25 per cent in the first quarter of this year driven by the deterioration of the sentiment in the industrial sector.

 

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Euro Growth Indicator January 2019

Growth in the euro area to remain muted

Growth in the euro area is expected to pick up somewhat from the low third quarter reading, but remain moderate for the time being, according to the January EUROFRAME Euro Growth Indicator. GDP is forecast to rise by 0.3 per cent in both the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, representing only modest improvement from the disappointing 0.2 percent growth registered by Eurostat for the July-September quarter. On a year-over-year basis, growth would decelerate to 1.3 per cent and 1.2 per cent in 2018Q4 and 2019Q1, respectively, down from 1.6 per cent in the third quarter and 2.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

 

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Euro Growth Indicator December 2018

Euro Growth Indicator shows growth will accelerate slightly in the next two quarters as the effects of transitory factors fade out

The December Euro Growth Indicator suggests that euro area GDP growth accelerates to a quarterly rate of 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2019. The Indicator implies that the year-on-year growth rate would be 1.4 per cent in both quarters. These growth rates are consistent with the expectation of some rebound from the temporary drop in car production especially in Germany that negatively affected growth in the third quarter and is expected to be largely temporary.

 

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