Euro Growth Indicator

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Euro Growth Indicator November 2018

Euro area GDP growth expected to decelerate by the end of the year

Euro area GDP growth in the third quarter (Eurostat flash estimate just 0.2 per cent) seems to be negatively affected by a temporary drop in car production related to the implementation of the new EU-wide WLTP car testing procedure. Such factors cannot be perfectly captured by leading indicators based on survey data. Underlying growth momentum in the euro area is, however, clearly decelerating. According to the EUROGROWTH indicator, GDP growth would decline from 0.4 per cent in the third quarter to 0.25 per cent in the fourth quarter. On a year-over-year basis, euro area GDP growth would come down from its previous peak of 2.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2017 to 1.2 per cent only in the fourth quarter of 2018.

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Euro Growth Indicator October 2018

Growth in the euro area decelerates

Growth in the euro area is expected to gradually slow down further towards the end of this year. According to the October Euro Growth Indicator calculated by EUROFRAME, growth will decelerate further to 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter, after stable growth of 0.4 per cent in the third quarter. On a year-over-year basis, growth would decline to 1.9 per cent and 1.5 per cent in Q3 and Q4, respectively, down from 2.1 per cent in the second quarter and 2.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

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Euro Growth Indicator September 2018

Euro area growth to slow down further towards the end of the year

The September Euro Growth indicator suggests that euro area growth in the third quarter of 2018 will keep its recent pace of 0.4 per cent. The first Indicator estimate for the fourth quarter signals a slow down to a quarterly rate of 0.3 per cent, implying a year-on-year growth rate in the last quarter of 2018 of 1.5 per cent, a growth rate well below the numbers seen during last two years.

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Euro Growth Indicator August 2018

More moderate growth in the euro area, but steady so far

Euro area GDP is expected to grow by around 0.4 per cent per quarter in the third quarter of 2018, according to the latest estimates of the Euro Growth Indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME group of economic research institutes. Euro area GDP would thus continue to grow at a similar pace as in the first half of 2018 despite increasing headwinds from the international policy uncertainties and higher oil prices.

 

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