Euro Growth Indicator

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Euro Growth Indicator October 2016

Expansion in the euro area to continue at moderate pace

The October estimate of the Euro Growth Indicator suggests that the negative fallout from the Brexit decision has been less pronounced than expected. The estimates for Q3 and Q4 have both gone up by close to 0.1 percentage point, following last month's downward Revision, and now point at growth of 0.4 and 0.5 per cent, respectively. On a y-o-y basis this would translate into growth rates in the range of the 1.8 per cent registered by Eurostat for 2016Q2.

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Euro Growth Indicator September 2016

Rising pessimism in the euro area

According to the Euro Growth Indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME group in early September, euro area real GDP should grow by 0.4 both in the third and fourth quarters of this year. The estimate for the third quarter has been revised downwards (–0.2 percentage point, from 0.55 to 0.36 pc) due to rising pessimism in the industrial sector, while the estimate for 2016Q4 is the first one run with the indicator. On a y-o-y basis, these forecasts imply a stable momentum, 1.6 percent both in 2016Q3 and 2016 Q4.

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Euro Growth Indicator August 2016

Euro Growth Indicator shows some strengthening in euro area growth

The Euro Growth Indicator, calculated by the Euroframe group in August 2016, suggests an acceleration of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2016 both in comparison to the second quarter and to the previous estimate in July. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area would accelerate to 0.6 per cent in the third quarter, up by 0.1 percentage points from July’s indicator value.  The implied year-on-year growth rate would be 1.8 per cent.

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Euro Growth Indicator July 2016

Euro area GDP expected to remain on a moderate growth path

Real GDP in the euro area should grow by 0.5 and 0.4 percent, respectively, in the second and third quarters of this year, according to the July Euro Growth Indicator. The indicator’s estimate for the second quarter has been revised slightly upward, while the estimate for 2016Q3 is unchanged. On a y-o-y basis, these forecasts imply a stronger momentum, rising from 1.5 percent growth in 2016Q1 to 1.8 and 1.9 percent in the second and third quarters, respectively.

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