Euro Growth Indicator

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Euro Growth Indicator June 2016

Steady but still moderate economic expansion in the euro area

In the summer half of 2016, the economic expansion in the euro area is expected to continue at a solid though moderate pace, according to the June estimate of the Euro Growth Indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME. The indicator forecasts 0.4 per cent growth in both the second and third quarter of this year, following the 0.5 per cent growth rate published by EUROSTAT for first quarter 2016.

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Euro Growth Indicator May 2016

Euro Growth Indicator does not confirm a strengthening in Euro Area Growth

The Euro Growth Indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME group in May 2016 suggests a continuation of moderate GDP growth in the first half of 2016. In quarter-on-quarter terms, the euro area GDP would grow by 0.3 per cent in the first two quarters of 2016 as it did in the third and fourth quarters in 2015. The Indicator misses the pick-up in euro area growth to 0.6 per cent (QoQ) in the first quarter indicated by the Eurostat flash estimate, which may suggest a new moderation of GDP growth after the first quarter.

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Euro Growth Indicator April 2016

Moderate pace of growth in the euro area

Growth in the euro area is expected to continue its steady but moderate upward trend in the first half of 2016, according to the April estimate of the EUROGROWTH Indicator. The indicator forecasts 0.3 per cent growth in both the first and second quarter of this year (unchanged from the March estimate), equal to the quarterly rates published by EUROSTAT for the third and fourth quarter 2015. Reflecting the continued moderate growth momentum growth on a y-o-y basis should slow from 1.6 per cent at the end of last year to 1.2 per cent in 2016Q2.

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Euro Growth Indicator March 2016

A weaker growth momentum in the euro area

The EUROGROWTH indicator outlook has been significantly revised downward in March. According to the new estimate, growth in the euro area should remain moderate 0.3 percent growth both in 2016Q1 and 2016 Q2, whereas the February indicator had still signalled an acceleration of growth in the first quarter to 0.5 percent. On a y-o-y basis, these forecasts imply a weakening of growth, from 1.5 percent in 2015Q4 to 1.1 in 2016Q2.

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