Euro Growth Indicator

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Euro Growth Indicator December 2016

The – modest – recovery in the euro area continues

The December Euro Growth Indicator, calculated by the EUROFRAME group, suggests that euro area GDP growth will accelerate in the turn of 2016 and 2017. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area would accelerate to around 0.5 per cent in both the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017, up from the moderate rate of 0.3 per cent reported by Eurostat for the summer semester 2016. These forecasts imply a rather stable year-on-year growth rate of 1.7 per cent up to 2017Q1.

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Euro Growth Indicator November 2016

Euro Growth Indicator suggests rather strong fourth quarter for the Euro Area

The Euro Growth Indicator, calculated by the Euroframe group in November 2016, suggests that euro area GDP growth will accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2016, both in comparison to the third quarter growth and to the previous estimate calculated in October. According to the indicator, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area would accelerate to 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, implying a relatively robust year-on-year growth rate of 1.8 per cent.

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Euro Growth Indicator October 2016

Expansion in the euro area to continue at moderate pace

The October estimate of the Euro Growth Indicator suggests that the negative fallout from the Brexit decision has been less pronounced than expected. The estimates for Q3 and Q4 have both gone up by close to 0.1 percentage point, following last month's downward Revision, and now point at growth of 0.4 and 0.5 per cent, respectively. On a y-o-y basis this would translate into growth rates in the range of the 1.8 per cent registered by Eurostat for 2016Q2.

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Euro Growth Indicator September 2016

Rising pessimism in the euro area

According to the Euro Growth Indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME group in early September, euro area real GDP should grow by 0.4 both in the third and fourth quarters of this year. The estimate for the third quarter has been revised downwards (–0.2 percentage point, from 0.55 to 0.36 pc) due to rising pessimism in the industrial sector, while the estimate for 2016Q4 is the first one run with the indicator. On a y-o-y basis, these forecasts imply a stable momentum, 1.6 percent both in 2016Q3 and 2016 Q4.

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