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Euro Growth Indicator February 2016

Growth continues rather strong despite instability in the financial markets

Rather strong Euro area growth is expected for the euro area in the 2015-2016 winter quarters, according to the EUROGROWTH Indicator calculated by the Euroframe group in February 2016. The Indicator estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 0.6 per cent growth, down by 0.1 percentage point from January, while the 2016Q1 estimate is unchanged at 0.5 per cent. In year-on-year terms, the growth rates for the two forecast quarters are 1.9 and 1.8 per cent, respectively.

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Euro Growth Indicator January 2016

Increased risks do not substantially reduce the outlook for growth in the euro area for the time being

GDP growth in the euro area will be rather sustained at the turn of 2015 and 2016 despite an apparent increase in external risks, according to the EUROGROWTH indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME group in January 2016. The expected quarter-to-quarter growth rates remain 0.7 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2015 and 0.5 percent for the first quarter of 2016. On a year-over-year basis, GDP growth would reach 1.9 per cent, which means an acceleration from the 1.6 percent currently estimated by Eurostat for the third quarter of 2015.

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Euro Growth Indicator December 2015

Euro area growth continues strong

Euro area growth is expected to be strong in the winter quarters 2015-2016, according to the December EUROGROWTH Indicator. The Indicator points to 0.7 per cent growth for the fourth quarter of 2015, which is unchanged from the November estimate. The first estimate for the first quarter growth in 2016 is a bit lower at 0.5 per cent. In year-on-year terms, the growth rates for the two forecast quarters are both 1.8 per cent, which would be the strongest growth since the summer of 2011.

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Euro Growth Indicator November 2015

Recovery in the euro area set to continue for the time being

According to the November EUROGROWTH indicator, growth in the euro area will accelerate in the second half of 2015 and grow by 0.7 per cent both in the third and in the fourth quarter of 2015, which would be the strongest performance in 4 1/2 years. The foundation of the upturn, however, still looks fragile as much of the current momentum is due to external shocks that may have run their course.

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