Euro Growth Indicator

Archive 2016

Euro Growth Indicator April 2016

Moderate pace of growth in the euro area

Growth in the euro area is expected to continue its steady but moderate upward trend in the first half of 2016, according to the April estimate of the EUROGROWTH Indicator. The indicator forecasts 0.3 per cent growth in both the first and second quarter of this year (unchanged from the March estimate), equal to the quarterly rates published by EUROSTAT for the third and fourth quarter 2015. Reflecting the continued moderate growth momentum growth on a y-o-y basis should slow from 1.6 per cent at the end of last year to 1.2 per cent in 2016Q2.

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Euro Growth Indicator March 2016

A weaker growth momentum in the euro area

The EUROGROWTH indicator outlook has been significantly revised downward in March. According to the new estimate, growth in the euro area should remain moderate 0.3 percent growth both in 2016Q1 and 2016 Q2, whereas the February indicator had still signalled an acceleration of growth in the first quarter to 0.5 percent. On a y-o-y basis, these forecasts imply a weakening of growth, from 1.5 percent in 2015Q4 to 1.1 in 2016Q2.

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Euro Growth Indicator February 2016

Growth continues rather strong despite instability in the financial markets

Rather strong Euro area growth is expected for the euro area in the 2015-2016 winter quarters, according to the EUROGROWTH Indicator calculated by the Euroframe group in February 2016. The Indicator estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 0.6 per cent growth, down by 0.1 percentage point from January, while the 2016Q1 estimate is unchanged at 0.5 per cent. In year-on-year terms, the growth rates for the two forecast quarters are 1.9 and 1.8 per cent, respectively.

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Euro Growth Indicator January 2016

Increased risks do not substantially reduce the outlook for growth in the euro area for the time being

GDP growth in the euro area will be rather sustained at the turn of 2015 and 2016 despite an apparent increase in external risks, according to the EUROGROWTH indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME group in January 2016. The expected quarter-to-quarter growth rates remain 0.7 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2015 and 0.5 percent for the first quarter of 2016. On a year-over-year basis, GDP growth would reach 1.9 per cent, which means an acceleration from the 1.6 percent currently estimated by Eurostat for the third quarter of 2015.

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